Lasenor is actively present in the main sourcing areas for NON GMO lecithin. We will offer regular feedback on its development as a diagnosing tool.
Non GMO Soya – Identity Preserved
2021 in Brazil
Soybean Balance (Mn T) January / December
Soya bean Crop 2021 in Brazil shows very good figures, but only 47,24 MnT of the crop is expected to be processed in local crushing plants.
It is roughly estimated that 98% of the total soybean output is now genetically modified, thus our projected volume of 945 000 T of Non GMO soybeans to be crushed, which yield approximately 5.250 T of soyabean lecithin.
It is also worth underlining that local crushers are reported to experience difficulties to maintain Hard IP certification system, leading to lower production volumes and discontinuation of IP certification projects.
Having a look at historical data for Brazilian crops we have the following scenario:
Source: CONAB, September 2020.
This graph clearly shows the decline of the Non GMO soybean crop in Brazil over the past 4 years. With regards to lecithin production the historical data is as follows:
Explanation for this trend:
In order to overcome the increasing risk of cross contamination, farmers and crushers have opted to concentrate in the value added Non GMO soy complex thus targeting exports to Europe with a view to capitalize on a premium price for Non GM Soy derivatives.
However, if there is no financial compensation/premium for Non GM material, same producers will shift its focus to GM soy products.
Unfortunately, the prices in Europe were not attractive enough to support Brazilian farmers efforts for certified Non GMO products. As a result, Non GMO soy cultivation has
Sunflower Lecithin
As anticipated in our Q1 2021 ́s issue, sunflower lecithin is facing an acute shortfall since end of March. There is virtually zero availability for spot business and contracts on Q3 2021 as a result of the high demand.
Price range at present has doubled compared to 6 months ago.
This situation will last at least until new sunflower crop becomes available in October, and market will need time to adjust to the existing supply shock.
plummeted to its lowest historical level and prevalence of GM soy varieties in Brazil is almost 100% this season.
Due to the tight supply, Indian Lecithin is in great demand even for South and Northern America users, that in the past imported significant amounts of Brazilian origin. Some important deals with multinational companies, have been recently closed for H2 2021 supply, which indicates a real shortage in Brazil.
On the back of the high demand prices are shooting up in India.
We do not expect better supply conditions before the end of 2021, and we believe that bullish uptrend in price will remain for the period.
In our views, substantial volumes of GMO Free Lecithin will be needed to compensate for the lack of Brazilian Non GMO product, therefore customers will be seeking for replacement with sunflower or Indian Soy.
Ukraine and Russia, the major sunflower producing countries have already started its sowing season.
The 2021 planting campaign started a few weeks later than usual due to cold weather and abundant rainfalls in the region. Ukrainian farmers have now almost completed 2021 spring grain campaign.
Ukrainian ministry reports farmers having sowed 6,4 Million hectares sunflower which represents 6% increase in the planting area.
This would lead to a expected record harvest of 16,4 Mt whereas 2020 ́s crop reached 14.3 Mn T.
In Russia and according to official 2021 estimates, the area for sunflower cultivation has decreased by 2.5% in comparison with last year.
Sunflower sowing area is estimated in the region of 8,9 Million hectares and 2021 ́s Russian crop is projected to reach 14.5- 15MnTv/s14MnTlastyear.
Sowing campaign being almost completed, we have now entered into a weather market. Climate conditions will play a major role next harvest.
We will release next Lecithin News issue by the end of September with the most recent insight of the situation and figures for sunflower crop and crush rates in 2021.
Monsoon in India will have started by then that will allow to get a more accurate outlook of the Non GMO lecithin market.
